By Eng. Chuar Juet Jock
This is a comparative opinion in terms of weighing in the cost and the consequences of returning South Sudan to 10 states or keeping it in the current 32 states, these are few of the ‘In a Nutshell” predications:
What may happen by keeping the 32 states?
– Peace may collapse and that means:
– Setbacks to all the efforts invested on achieving peace which may have cost more than 100 millions and counting.
– Resumption of the war and that’s a return to the bloody and destructive square one and all that it reignites.
-The little progress made in every aspects may deteriorate again particularly in; the realized improved security nationwide, national interaction and reconciliation, 10 thousands of South Sudanese have returned to Juba in a way or another in the last two years of ceased hostilities between the warring parties.
– With the new fear of looming war and the trauma of the previous deadly one, thousands of IDPs may return back to PoCs as well as a sharp increase in the refugee numbers to the neighboring countries.
-Setbacks in the current security arrangement efforts and leave alone the negative impact to the already hard-hit economy that a new conflict could trigger.
– Collapse of the current peaceful efforts may means no other option left to make change happens except through armed opposition and this may be a real gloomy future for South Sudan and its already devastated people
What may happen by returning South Sudan to 10 states status?
– That means the most controversial issue between the warring parties is finally resolved and R-TGoNU will be formed on time.
– Peace will be achieved at least with the major and most of the opposition groups
– New rebellions may emerge if the supporters of the would-be defunct 32 states aren’t given a strong promise by leaders of the warring parties in their last communique that a new process of dividing South Sudan into new number of states will be soon initiated, where a rigorous and credible feasibility study on the shared tribal, states boundaries, impacted populace, resources allocation…etc., should be first carried out and where the criteria of division should not necessarily be tribal but on the objectives of achieving attractive unity, social and economic integration between states and people of South Sudan and where land grabbing and annexation should not be used as a bribe for military and political support.
– Deconstruction of the 32 states and reconstruction of 10 states will need huge financial resources, strong and informed, public administrators, law enforcement and security forces and where the international and the regional community must do all its best to support the processes of such a risky and huge transition.
These are just few of the many predictions that could take place and hopefully, this time and around, our leaders will be decisive and courageous on actualizing the much needed peace in our country. In their part, our people may need to be more vigilant, resilience and with great resolve. All the best!
Eng. Chuar Juet Jock
Author of “In a Nutshell” Book Series