By Eng. Chuar Juet Jock
At this political turn in South Sudan, when the political dust seem to be settling, defecting to Kiir and asking him to abandon Machar is a grave miscalculation to the political realities in South Sudan and reflects an acute political ignorance in itself and particularly when the price tag of defections seems to be of no higher bidders these days and when the two have settled on dividing the national cake upon themselves and eat it too. So what is that offer you would give Kiir that he can’t refuse more than the assurance that he will stay in power indefinitely? Well, apart from the truth that, this is like convincing the man to go back to the time when his chair being shaken by his longtime political rival Mr. Machar or proving who would be better in that case of “dumb and dumber”. If there is any consensus now from the ruling establishment or the beneficiaries of the status quo is to keep Riek around for sometime or as a longtime political partner. Because keeping Riek Machar in leadership is in the best interest of Kiir & Co. in many ways. On the other side of the coin and in Machar interest, there is also only one man who can make Riek lifetime dream of being president of South Sudan possible and that’s Kiir Mayardit. Despite him being a staunch power lover like his rival exactly, passing it to Machar would be the right historical thing to do for the political powerful who want to keep their legacies and dynasties rolling for quite sometime . If you look at the structural and anatomical details of both SPLM IG and IO you will find such a trend is boldly displayed and those who already won a place in the establishment won’t do stupid things to avoid losing it. Well, below are few notes for those who want to gamble on making an abrupt coup to the status quo by dreaming of Kiir putting Riek aside from power and political partnership. They should know better.
• Mr. Kiir have already tested the water deep, by his many attempts to dislodge Riek from leadership and political theater and this proven to be costly and a nightmare to him before anyone else leave alone that it is nearly impossible. In reciprocal, this maybe the same with Mr. Machar.
• Well, if you are defecting to Kiir in order to replace Machar, Kiir also knows very well that many possibilities out of many qualities of that projected Riek’s successor could be too costly and drastic than keeping Machar himself.
• The projected Riek’s successor could be better than Riek not only in uniting the Nuer but also the rest of disgruntled and marginalized South Sudanese around an inclusive national project and state which means he has better chances of dislodging Kiir & Co. and their failed state, militarily or through democratic elections. This is a political disadvanatge for both. if Kiir is gone, Machar will follow.
• The would be Riek’s successor may have leadership abilities and dynamics that could stir the new nascent country into new dawn and positive direction; united, democratic, politically stable, socially cohesive and economically prosperous. Who want that? Some local and regional bloody business tycoons who are relying on the troubled status quo may go broke. The problem with the state of South Sudan is that it was started on the wrong footing and that has becomes the establishment. Rolling it back may need different people not the ones benefiting from it and as the corrupt deep state grow stronger and powerful day by day, uprighting it would prove to be difficult with time.
• The possible Riek’s successor may be politically clean, no bad blood or dirty money on his/her hand. That means he could be cleaner than president Kiir himself, forcing Kiir to see himself or be seen as the only bad guy in the “field”. Irrelevant. This would make Mayardit whispers to Riek’s ears ” Stay buddy, you the best of all, we are all together in this deep dirt”. As the saying goes “the devil you know is thousand times better than the angel your just met”. Those two men have many in common than you can tell. Your options are either you fight them both, or you join both by staying clam and committed at your lane of their same road. You will arrive to your personal goals without troubles until you decide to outsmart them.
Eng. Chuar Juet Jock